The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Matt Hougan Breaks Down The New Crypto Era

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This year, the crypto market has entered uncharted territory. New structural dynamics are reshaping how investors view the space, calling into question the long-held belief in the classic four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events and market boom-bust patterns have followed a predictable rhythm—but 2025 is breaking that mold.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the industry has entered a new era. In a recent analysis, he argued that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a reliable framework for understanding crypto market behavior. According to Hougan, the two key drivers behind this shift are the weakening of the forces that created earlier cycles—such as the diminishing impact of halvings and blow-up risk—and second, the emergence of larger, longer-term trends that don’t align with the old pattern.

From the rise of crypto ETFs to a surge in institutional adoption and regulatory progress, Hougan sees multi-year forces beginning to dominate market direction. As Wall Street capital begins flowing into digital assets, and regulatory clarity grows with legislation like the GENIUS Act, investors may need to recalibrate their expectations.

Long-Term Forces Reshaping Crypto’s Market Structure

According to Hougan, each halving becomes “half as important” every four years, reducing its impact on market momentum. Unlike 2018 and 2022, when the interest rate environment added pressure to risk assets, today’s monetary backdrop is more favorable to crypto.

Additionally, blow-up risks from unregulated players are fading as regulation improves and institutionalization advances. Hougan notes that the rise of regulated entities and better transparency has stabilized the market and removed some of the cyclical fragility.

He also points to a more significant, emerging risk: the growing influence of Treasury companies that hold and move large amounts of crypto. Their potential to influence markets on a short-term basis is substantial and worth monitoring.

At the same time, larger forces are now in motion. The shift of capital into crypto ETFs marks the beginning of a 5–10 year trend that started in 2024. Institutional adoption is only just beginning, with pensions and endowments starting to explore the asset class. Regulatory momentum kicked off in January 2025, and Wall Street capital is only beginning to flow following the passage of the Genius Act this month.

“These long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces,” Hougan said. He believes 2026 will be a strong year—not because of another hype-driven surge, but because of what he calls a “sustained steady boom” rather than a super-cycle. While acknowledging that volatility will persist, Hougan emphasizes that crypto’s maturation is real and accelerating. Investors may need to recalibrate their strategies for this new era.

The monthly logarithmic chart of the total crypto market cap reveals a clear long-term uptrend, currently sitting around $3.82 trillion. After a prolonged consolidation phase that began in mid-2022, the market has steadily climbed and is now approaching its all-time high range near the $3.9 trillion–$4 trillion mark. This level acted as a significant resistance zone during the previous cycle and remains a key psychological barrier.

From a technical perspective, the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) continues to slope upward and currently sits at $1.88 trillion, well below the current market value, reflecting strong macro support. Additionally, volume has picked up significantly in recent months—especially during the last two green candles—indicating renewed investor confidence and institutional inflows, consistent with the narrative of growing ETF adoption and broader regulatory clarity.

The market structure also shows higher lows and higher highs on the monthly timeframe, signaling that the bullish trend remains intact. As long as the crypto market cap continues to hold above $3.2 trillion and makes another monthly close above $3.8 trillion, the probability of a breakout toward uncharted territory increases significantly.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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