Is Bitcoin Bull Run Nearing Its End? LTH Conviction Is Strong But STH Pressure Builds

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin has entered a critical consolidation phase after reaching its $123,000 all-time high, sparking a wave of caution among investors. Since the peak, price action has cooled down, with BTC now trading below key resistance levels. This slowdown has led some analysts to speculate that $123K could represent the market top for this cycle, increasing fears of a potential bearish reversal.

However, data from CryptoQuant offers a more balanced perspective. Metrics reveal that long-term holders (LTH) remain steadfast, showing strong conviction in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. These investors continue to hold significant unrealized profits without signs of mass distribution, which supports the argument that the macro trend remains bullish.

Conversely, short-term holders (STH) are showing signs of weakness, with profit margins shrinking during recent rallies. This divergence between LTH confidence and STH selling pressure has created short-term volatility, but the broader supply dynamics remain healthy.

Long-Term Holders Support Bullish Structure Amid Short-Term Selling Pressure

CryptoQuant analyst AbramChart highlights that Long-Term Holders (LTH) continue to anchor Bitcoin’s bullish narrative, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric remaining solidly above 0.5. This indicates that LTH are still in significant profit territory and show no signs of capitulation. Their strong conviction and willingness to hold are providing a solid foundation for Bitcoin’s price, even as market sentiment shows signs of cooling after the recent rally to $123K.

In contrast, Short-Term Holders (STH) are operating under different conditions. Their NUPL levels are fluctuating near lower profit margins, suggesting that many are either realizing gains during brief rallies or are feeling pressure from holding underwater positions. This behavior is creating short-term corrective waves in Bitcoin’s price action, contributing to the recent volatility.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading close to the $104K zone, a level that appears to be supported mainly by LTH confidence. The absence of mass selling from these long-term holders reflects their belief in Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory, despite temporary market pullbacks.

AbramChart emphasizes that unless LTH begin to distribute their holdings aggressively, the macro uptrend remains intact. Therefore, current price action is likely a phase of consolidation within a larger bullish cycle, where STH-driven volatility offers strategic accumulation opportunities for long-term participants.

Price Action Details: Testing Key Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $114,316, following a sharp pullback from the local highs at $122,077. The chart shows that BTC is now retesting the $115,724 resistance zone, which was previously a key support level during the two-week consolidation range. The 100-period moving average (green line) around $115,326 is adding additional pressure, creating a confluence resistance level that bulls need to overcome for further upside momentum.

Volume has picked up during the recent bounce, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend the $112K zone. However, BTC is still trading below the 50-period moving average (blue line) at $117,201, suggesting that short-term trend momentum remains bearish unless BTC can reclaim this level.

The overall structure suggests a relief rally within a corrective phase. Bulls need a decisive close above $115,724 to shift the short-term bias back to bullish and aim for a retest of the $122,077 highs. Failure to break above resistance could result in continued range-bound price action, with support at $112,000 being the immediate level to watch.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.