Canary Capital CEO Drops Shocking XRP ETF Prediction

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In an interview published on October 4, Steven McClurg, co-founder and CIO of Canary Capital, sketched an aggressive outlook for a prospective US spot XRP exchange-traded fund while mapping the broader contours of a crypto-ETF market he believes will consolidate around a small number of large-cap assets.

Spot XRP ETFs Will Shock Wall Street

Speaking with Paul Barron, McClurg reiterated and then upshifted a prior forecast on early demand for an XRP ETF, arguing that first-month inflows could reach an eye-catching $10 billion—double the “bearish” $5 billion figure he had previously floated.

“I may have changed my mind. I may have been a little bearish,” McClurg said when asked whether $5 billion in the first month still felt realistic. “I’m gonna hold to that number because… if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right.”

He added that day-one demand could be unusually thick: “If it was a billion in one day, I think XRP does two or three billion day one.” For context, he recalled that the first US bitcoin futures ETF launched with “over a billion dollars in inflows” on day one, placing it among the largest ETF debuts on record.

The Canary Capital executive framed the coming wave of crypto ETFs as broad but not limitless. While some commentators have speculated about dozens or even a hundred listed products across digital assets, McClurg emphasized the constraints of “generic listing standards” and real-world demand. “There’s only about 14 to 15 assets that are going to qualify under the generic listing standards currently and I think maybe another five to 10 after that,” he said, drawing an analogy to the precious-metals complex in which only a handful of commodities command sustainable ETF interest. “I don’t think that more than, say, 25 are going to be relevant.”

McClurg expects asset concentration to mirror what has emerged in spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. Asked whether baskets will win over single-asset funds, he answered that some large-caps will stand on their own. “Things like probably Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana will—each one of those will probably have more assets than any one basket. But after those four I think baskets are the next.” He also confirmed that Canary is developing an “American-made” crypto index theme—“you may have seen the filing”—and, while declining to discuss weights before index publication, acknowledged that XRP would be included.

The conversation repeatedly returned to regulatory coordination and timing—especially amid the federal government shutdown that began shortly before the interview. McClurg said the shutdown had already sidelined “non-essential” SEC workstreams, including reviews of S-1 and S-3 registration statements. “I expect there to be a long delay,” he warned, pushing back on speculation that Solana ETFs could launch “next week” while staff are furloughed. He nonetheless expects most pending crypto ETFs to clear this year “as long as it’s not a very long shutdown.”

Why XRP?

The XRP investment case, in McClurg’s telling, will hinge not just on ETF rails but on underlying utility, especially cross-border payments. “What I like about XRP is what they’re attempting to build… for financial rails, including cross-border payments,” he said, recounting his own path into blockchain through the remittances problem. He called current remittance fees “ridiculously high,” adding: “I’m for any technology that eliminates a lot of that… that’s kind of a bit of a secret weapon… for XRP in comparison to some other ETF offerings.”

Addressing governance headlines at Ripple, McClurg downplayed the market impact of David Schwartz’s move from CTO to XRPL-focused roles. “It really doesn’t [change my view],” he said. “He’s still involved. He’s still on the board… I actually think this is a positive,” allowing fresh leadership to rotate in after a long, contentious period for the company.

On macro and cycles, McClurg offered a tempered framework. He expects the traditional four-year crypto cycle to persist but become “more and more muted” as market caps rise—“the law of large numbers.” His year-end bitcoin target remains $140,000 despite loftier calls elsewhere. “That sounds really low,” he conceded, “but I just don’t expect… it’s going to take a lot more work to move that number up.”

He sees a plausible extension of the rally into Q1–Q2 next year, conditioned by liquidity and rate policy. A replacement of the Fed chair in May could prompt a rally in anticipation of deeper cuts, followed by a sell-the-news reaction once delivered. Meanwhile, he flagged weakening US consumer demand—restaurant, airline, and hotel bookings among the early signals—as a growing headwind for risk assets if it persists.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.97.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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