Forget Bitcoin’s Halving — The ‘Business Cycle’ Is The Real Market Killer: Analyst

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Bitcoin jumped about 4% in the past 24 hours, trading near $110,000. Short-term players are watching a break above $112,200 for signs of renewed strength, while long-term holders still sit largely in profit.

Reports have disclosed that easing US–China tensions may help risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term, adding a geopolitical layer to price action.

Macro Risks Could Shape Next Downturn

According to analyst Willy Woo, the next crypto bear market could be driven by a classic “business cycle” slump rather than the usual crypto rhythms.

He pointed out that two cycles have overlapped so far: the four-year Bitcoin halving rhythm and swings in M2 money supply.

Woo warned that a true business cycle contraction — the kind seen around 2001 and 2008 — would be a different test for Bitcoin’s role in markets.

We had two 4y cycles superimposed

Now it’s only one; global M2 liquidity

Next bear IMO will be defined by another cycle people forget about → the business cycle

The last biz cycle downturns that really took hold was 2008 and 2001, from before crypto markets were invented pic.twitter.com/inHqQH7zWx

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 20, 2025

Historical Events Offer A Guide

The dot-com downturn around 2001 saw US stocks fall roughly 50% over two years. And during the 2008 financial crisis the S&P 500 dropped about 56% as credit froze and GDP fell.

Those events happened before crypto existed, which is why Woo says crypto has not yet been stress-tested by a full-scale recession. Based on reports, that concern is about how liquidity would change and how quickly investors would sell riskier holdings.

BTCUSD trading at $107,854 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Liquidity And Recession Signals

The National Bureau of Economic Research tracks employment, personal income, industrial production and retail sales to spot recessions. Right now there is no across-the-board signal that a deep downturn is imminent, though some risks are elevated.

Trade tariffs are one factor that trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to weigh on GDP into the first half of 2026, analysts said. That kind of slower growth can sap liquidity and pressure markets.

$BTC has reclaimed the $109,000-$110,000 support zone.

The next crucial level to reclaim is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin higher.

With US-China trade tensions easing, I think BTC could rally more from here. pic.twitter.com/D8VNses1ix

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 20, 2025

What Traders Are Watching Next

Analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin has regained a foothold between $109,000 and $110,000, and he pointed to $112,000 as the next resistance that matters.

A clean move above that zone could invite more buyers. Conversely, a sharp liquidity squeeze from a broader recession could force Bitcoin to move more like tech stocks did in past downturns, not like gold.

The Real Test

Woo said the real test for Bitcoin will come when cash gets tight and investors must choose where to park money — not from the usual crypto triggers.

This period, he said, will expose who treated Bitcoin as a hedge and who treated it as a high-risk bet, and that outcome will shape institutional behavior and market rules going forward.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

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