Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Following 2022 Playbook, But In Reverse; Here’s How

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Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi says the Bitcoin price action is repeating 2022 cycle patterns, but only in reverse. Back then, the US Federal Reserve (FED) rate hikes triggered a staggering 63% crash in the BTC price. Now with the FED preparing to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the same macro setup could push prices in the opposite direction, potentially marking the start of Bitcoin’s next major rally. 

Bitcoin Price Traces 2022 Cycle Pattern In Reverse

Chifoi explained on X social media on November 2 that Bitcoin’s behaviour appears to be replaying the 2022 macroeconomic environment in reverse. Back in March 2022, he noted that when the FED first announced aggressive rate hikes, the Bitcoin price was trending near $46,000. As the US central bank delivered its initial two hikes of 50 and 75 basis points by June that year, BTC collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical bottom of that cycle. 

As the FED continued to hike from a total of 175 to 550 bps, the market had already absorbed the shock. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin had entered its accumulation phase and began to reverse upward even as other market experts labeled the central bank’s actions “irresponsible” and belated. 

Fast forward to the present, Chifoi believes that the cycle is now flipping. With the FED recently announcing the end of Quantitative Tightening by December, he predicts that the next three-month window could trigger a powerful bullish surge that could drive Bitcoin to a top rather than a bottom.

He points to late December through January 20, 2026, as the key period to watch, suggesting that the crypto market could rally sharply before entering a cooling phase as liquidity fully returns. 

Liquidity Spikes And Repo Signals Support Thesis

Supporting his analysis, Chifoi referenced a post made by another analyst known as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle,’ who shared a telling FRED chart showing a surge in Overnight Repurchase Agreements—Treasury securities temporarily purchased by the FED in open market operations. 

The chart, which spans from 2000 to 2025, highlights a sudden and substantial spike in repo activity, suggesting potential liquidity injections into the financial system. The analyst noted that this spike alone does not guarantee a market crash, as historically such increases have typically provided a short-term boost for equities and crypto. 

He further noted that the FED’s recent actions indicate stress in the financial system and an early stage of liquidity support, which could push speculative assets higher.

Based on this, the analyst predicts that the market could still enter a parabolic phase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 before facing a major crash in 2026, roughly 6-12 months from the time of his post on November 2. As a precaution, he warns traders to monitor credit spreads, repo activity levels, and VIX correlation for early signs of tightening liquidity. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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