57% Of Invested Capital Now Underwater

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On-chain data shows that a majority of the USD capital invested in Bitcoin has dipped into losses following the latest market crash.

Majority Of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Is Now Underwater

As pointed out by on-chain analyst Checkmate in an X thread, Bitcoin’s recent bearish action has put a huge amount of the capital invested into the cryptocurrency in a state of loss. The invested capital here refers to the amount that BTC investors as a whole used to purchase their tokens. This is different from the market cap, which represents the value the holders are carrying in the present.

The invested capital, which is popularly known as the Realized Cap, is determined by adding up the last USD transaction price for all coins in circulation. Not all transfers on the network correspond to a change of hands, but this methodology still provides a decent approximation of the capital stored in the asset.

Now, here is the chart shared by Checkmate that shows how the Bitcoin Realized Cap is distributed across the various price levels:

Looks like a large chunk of the Realized Cap has a cost basis higher than the current spot price | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X

As displayed in the above graph, the majority of the Realized Cap has a break-even level higher than $100,000. This suggests that most of the capital stored in the cryptocurrency today came in after the bull run in late 2024.

More specifically, approximately 57% of the asset’s invested capital sits above the post-crash prices. Interestingly, while a huge portion of the Realized Cap is now underwater, the actual degree of unrealized loss held by the investors isn’t too big in relative terms.

The total unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin investors stands at $20 billion at the moment, which is equivalent to just 3% of the market cap.

The trend in the unrealized profit/loss for the various cost basis bands | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X

For comparison, dips during the last couple of years have seen losses reach 7% to 8% of the market cap, while past major bear markets have usually started with this metric at more than 10%. Checkmate has highlighted a level past which unrealized losses could blow up for Bitcoin: $95,000. Currently, 63% of the capital invested in the asset has a cost basis higher than this mark.

“$95k is what I believe is the bulls last stand, because as price falls below that level, unrealised losses will swell significantly,” explained the analyst. It now remains to be seen how the profit-loss distribution among the Bitcoin investors will change in the coming days.

BTC Price

Bitcoin saw a drop toward $98,000 on Tuesday, but its price has since witnessed a small bounce back to the $101,900 mark.

The price of the coin seems to have plunged over the last few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com

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