Why A Bitcoin Price Breakout Could Be A Negative Thing For Investors

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Bitcoin’s price action around the $70,000 region is beginning to look like the start of a breakout. Bulls are watching closely for a close above the $70,000 resistance that could signal a new upward leg.

At first glance, that outcome appears positive. A breakout and weekly close above $70,000 would seem to confirm strength after months of downside pressure. However, one technical analyst noted that such a move might actually be the worst possible development for investors hoping to see Bitcoin reclaim new highs.

The 25-Day Range That Has Not Built Enough Strength

Bitcoin is doing something it hasn’t done in months. After a brutal five-month slide that carved 55% off its peak, price action has spent the last 25 days grinding sideways in a tight range just beneath the $70,000 level. Right now, it looks like it might finally be breaking out.

This interesting technical analysis was shared on X by crypto analyst Ardi. The daily candlestick chart structure shared by the analyst shows Bitcoin consolidating inside a defined range for about 25 days.

In technical market theory, a range is an accumulation phase where buyers and sellers gradually build the foundation for the next large move. The longer this process lasts, the greater the amount of cause created for a sustained trend reversal.

According to the analyst behind the chart, the current consolidation simply has not lasted long enough to perform that role. Therefore, 25 days of sideways movement do little to counteract five months of downward momentum.

Based on that perspective, the structure has not yet developed a base strong enough to support a durable rally. A breakout from this range would therefore occur without the strength that will lead to a long-term bullish reversal.

Bulls Might Actually Want More Time

Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $71,855, with an intraday high of $73,952. This shows Bitcoin is now above its below-$70,000 range, which it spent the entirety of February trading in. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is now printing green on the monthly candlestick.

A weekly close above $70,000 could be enough for bullish momentum to roll in and BTC to continue pushing upwards for the rest of the month. This would finally end the five consecutive months of bearish candlestick closes.

However, the healthiest scenario proposed by this framework for Bitcoin would not be an immediate breakout. Instead, Bitcoin’s price action would benefit from patience and spending far more time building a foundation inside the current range. 

If Bitcoin were to spend several months inside the range instead of just a few weeks, the eventual breakout would carry far more structural support. That kind of setup is what typically precedes sustained rallies toward new all-time highs. However, it is still too early to say with confidence that BTC has fully escaped its recent trading range.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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