Realized Price Theory Says $123,000 Is Not The Bitcoin Top

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After rallying to a new all-time high of $123,000, the Bitcoin price has since slowed down as sell-offs have ravaged the market. As always, this has led to speculations that the digital asset has seen the top of its price range, signaling the end of the bull market. However, using the Realized Price Theory, showing how much the Bitcoin price has always risen every bull market compared to its previous cycle high, it is possible that the rally is far from over.

How Bitcoin Cycle Tops Measure To Previous Realized Price

Crypto analyst Gert van Lagen took to X (formerly Twitter) to share an interesting historical trend that suggests that the Bitcoin price has not hit its cycle peak yet. This trend has to do with the Realized Price of the cryptocurrency, and then how many multiples it rises relative to this realized price to mark a new cycle peak.

Pointing to previous bull markets, van Lagen explains that Bitcoin has always risen by several multiples of its realized price before it actually marks a new cycle top. Back in 2011, the price had risen by 8x relative to its realized price before a market top was reached, and this trend would continue over the next decade.

Fast forward to 2013, and the Bitcoin price would stage a similar rally again. This time, the price rose by 6x before reaching a new peak. A similar trend was seen again 4 years later in the next bull run that began in 2017. The BTC price did a 5x run before the top was in.

Again, in 2021, the Bitcoin price showed that it always moves a few multiples of its realized price before calling a top. Despite a devastating market crash due to COVID in 2020, Bitcoin was able to rally by 4x its realized price before hitting its $69,000 top in 2021.

Given this trend, it is expected that BTC will also follow and put in multiples of its realized price before the top is in. However, looking at historical performance, it shows that with each bull market, the range by which the realized price rises has declined. Thus, BTC will likely see a lower multiple compared to the 4x seen back in 2021.

According to data from Glassnode, the current Bitcoin realized price is $51,000. This means that so far, the price has already risen by 2x. But following the trend of the last few bull markets, it is possible that BTC does a 3x multiple of its realized price. If that is the case, then the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 is still quite high. Also, if this realized price theory holds, then it means that the bull market is far from over, and cryptocurrencies still have runway left.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

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