Bitcoin Bear Market ‘Lines Up’ With 2022, Analyst Warns Of Next Stop At $45,000 And $35,000

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The wider crypto market slid about 4% on Wednesday, pulling major tokens back to key support zones and putting renewed pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). 

By mid‑afternoon, BTC had retreated roughly 5% and was trading near $71,240, a pullback that has analysts re‑examining whether the current downturn is simply a short pause or the start of a deeper correction.

Deeper Bitcoin Retracement Ahead?

Market analyst Crypto Con argued on social media platform X that Bitcoin’s present weakness now closely tracks the 2022 bear market after an initial period of even steeper short‑term underperformance. 

Drawing on historical cycle patterns, Crypto Con suggested the next likely stages could take BTC down toward $45,000 and — in a more extended drawdown — as low as $35,000. 

He noted that many technical indicators still have room to fall before reaching cyclical lows and that support metrics converge in the $35,000–$45,000 band. 

“It’s the last drop that does most of the damage, which has been the part that decreases every cycle,” he observed, pointing to October–November as the period when the deepest damage historically occurs.

Macroeconomic developments are reinforcing the cautious tone. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate at 3.5%–3.75%, as widely anticipated. 

Market expert Kyle Chassé weighed in on the Fed outcome and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, saying the central bank’s messaging and recent data create a difficult backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. 

The Fed’s updated projection shows one rate cut in 2026 — unchanged from December — while the inflation forecast was nudged up to 2.7% from 2.5%, a shift Powell linked in part to rising oil prices. 

Powell also described the economic consequences of the Middle East tensions as “uncertain,” noting it is “too soon to know the scope and duration.”

Key Price Levels To Watch 

Chassé described the combination of those elements as “brutal” for risk markets. He argued that the bullish scenario for BTC depends on the Fed treating the recent oil shock as temporary: if Powell does, markets could rally; if the Fed views the spike as longer lasting, liquidity may tighten, and Bitcoin could break support at $70,000. 

Chassé highlighted immediate technical levels to watch: $70,000 is the key floor bulls must defend, with $67,000 as the next downside buffer; on the upside, reclaiming $76,000 would open the door to a relief move toward $80,000.

Institutional flows into and out of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are another decisive near‑term factor, according to Chassé. He noted that a single‑day institutional withdrawal above $300 million would signal risk reduction, while steady inflows would suggest buyers are treating the dip as a buying opportunity. 

Adding to the technical backdrop, Bitcoin’s volatility recently touched 1%, its lowest in two months — a compression that historically precedes renewed volatility, he said. In that sense, Powell’s remarks were a likely catalyst to reawaken price swings.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

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