Don’t Celebrate Bitcoin Yet: The Trend Is Still Bearish, And This Is Why

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Bitcoin’s brief rally above $75,000 this week led to bullish optimism in some corners of the crypto market, but technical analysis shows the trend might still be bearish. A close look at BTC’s daily and weekly charts tells a more sobering story, one that shows that the crypto king might continue on a lower correction move in the coming days.

Bitcoin Is Still Trapped Inside A Bear Flag

Bitcoin’s price recovery into the mid-$70,000s this week is not enough on its own to confirm that Bitcoin is out of danger. According to crypto analyst CrypFlow, the bigger trend is starting to look constructive on higher timeframes, but the daily chart still shows a bearish structure that has not been invalidated. Until that changes, the latest bounce may be nothing.

The daily candlestick timeframe chart shows that BTC has spent the past several weeks since early February consolidating within a rising channel structure. This is a pattern that, in the context of a prior downtrend, is technically classified as a bear flag.

The chart shows Bitcoin rallying into the upper boundary of the flag near the $76,000 area before getting rejected. That same region also lines up with a major resistance band marked on the chart, reinforcing the idea that bulls have not yet done enough to flip the structure. The BTC price has since fallen back toward the middle of the channel, leaving the leading cryptocurrency at a short-term decision point.

As seen in the chart below, a similar bear flag was formed from mid-November 2025 to late January 2026, and this eventually led to the breakdown to $60,000 in early February 2026.

The $70,000 To $76,000 Zone Now Matters More Than Ever

The current battle is taking place between the midline of the flag and the recent rejection zone is at $76,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,610, which places it close to support around $70,000. If BTC closes the week below $70,000, then the bear flag projects the price on the path to at least $65,000.

In a separate analysis, CrypFlow turned attention to the weekly timeframe and raised a more macro-level concern using Bitcoin’s Gaussian Channel indicator. This model looks at how Bitcoin has behaved across full market cycles.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin has never formed its cycle bottom before the Gaussian Channel flips from green to red. Each major bottom has come after that transition has already taken place. This pattern played out consistently in 2015, 2018, and again in 2022, where the final lows only arrived once the channel had fully turned bearish.

Interestingly, the Gaussian Channel transitioned from green to red after Bitcoin’s low in early February, not before. Although the Bitcoin price is still holding above $60,000 for now, the implication is that this level may not be the final bottom.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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